University at Buffalo Analytical Technique Probability Distribution MindTap

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Assignments must be completed on MindTap AND a completed workbook with your full completed solutions must be submitted via Sakai. You must submit both in order to receive any credit.

Hardcopies or copies emailed will not be graded.

There is no option for late submissions in MindTap. Failure to submit your submit your assignment on MindTap before the due date will result in zero credit.

Submit your worked data in one single MS Excel Workbook. Start your solution set by using the assignment shell provided on Sakai. Use appropriately labeled worksheets for each problem/section of a problem.

Pay very close attention to the final presentation of your work and make sure it is print-ready. Prepare all spreadsheets so that they are clear, attractive and easy for the untrained eye to follow and understand. While accurate content and precise execution of the techniques is critical, formatting, typographical and grammatical acuteness is also very important. General sloppiness and inconsistent formatting will lower your grade.

Note: Ignore MindTap warning about text-based answers. All open ended questions will be graded as well. In fact, your grade will depend equally on the accuracy of your analytical techniques and your interpretation of the results.

Assignment files should be named as follows:

  • Asg#_FirstInitialLastname
  • e.g. Assignment 1 for Michael Phelps would be named Asg1_MPhelps.xlsx

Question 1. 85 points

Decision 1

Decision 2

Decision 3

Payoff/Cost

Probability

Payoff/Cost

Probability

Payoff/Cost

Probability

$50,000

0.1

$5,000

0.6

$3,000

1

$10,000

0.2

-$1,000

0.4

-$5,000

0.7

Calculate the EMV for each of the decisions in the table above (also shown in Worksheet Q1),

Use what-if data tables to perform the following sensitivity analyses on the EMV for decision 1.
Note: In each of the 3 cases outlined below, you are examining the sensitivity of the EMV for decision 1 and then comparing that value to the (static) values of EMV for decisions 2 and 3.
The goal in each case is to see whether decision 1continues to have the largest EMV, and if not, identify the decision that has the best (largest) EMV.

A.Let the payoff from the best outcome for the first decision, the value in cell A3, vary from $30,000 to $50,000 in increments of $2500.

B.Let the probability of the worst outcome for the first decision, the value in cell B5, vary from 0.7 to 0.9 in increments of 0.025.
Be sure to use formulas in cells B3 and B4 to ensure that they remain in the ratio 1 to 2 and the three probabilities for decision 1 continue to sum to 1.

C.Use a two-way data table to let the inputs in Parts A and B (the value in cell A3 and the value in cell B5) vary simultaneously over the indicated ranges.

Questions 2-6. . 15 points

Multiple-choice questions.

 
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